Improving economic statistics

THE BEST OPTION APPEARS TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE & REGULAR SURVEY DATA WITH DISTRICT AS A DOMAIN

- PC MOHANAN

THERE ARE SOME new initiatives from the ministry of statistics and programme implementation to enhance survey-based estimates in socioeconomic sectors and the delivery of statistical products to users.

Base years over a decade old have been used for economic indicators like GDP, index of industrial production (IIP), and consumer price index (CPI), now they are being revised. Survey-based monthly labour force indicators and quarterly sectoral surveys have been instituted; and an improved website-based data dissemination is in place. Above all, the long overdue population census operations are, at last, underway. These are indeed welcome after years of near slumber and silence, especially when its data failed to support the political narrative of the day.

Sub-national GDP: While the steps to update the economic indicators are long overdue, the extent to which these will improve the sub-national indicators begs examination. In particular, the revision of gross state domestic product (GSDP) is critical for the states, as it is crucial in deciding the state borrowing limits and is used by the Finance Commissions in their criteria for devolution of funds. It is often a normalising denominator for fiscal and other indicators for interstate comparisons. Presently, for estimating GSDP, states are dependent on the National Statistics Office for allocating/apportioning national figures in several sectors. The use of centralised databases like MCA-21 or the use of a commodity flow approach generally excludes state-wise information. Even the presentation of GSDP does not help reveal the structure of a state’s economy. Significant sectors are clubbed together as “other services” while several sub-sectors with negligible shares at the state levels are given following the national practice.