A pause, not peace

The only silver lining in Trump's ceasefire is the narrow window it opens for backchannel talks.

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DONALD TRUMP'S ANNOUNCEMENT of a five-day ceasefire in West Asia has been greeted with predictable relief in global markets, including India's. Equities have moved up, bond markets have steadied, and crude oil briefly retreated before climbing back above $100 a barrel. But to read this as anything more than a reflex rally is to misread both markets and geopolitics. This is not peace.

It is, at best, a pause-and a precarious one at that. Even as Washington speaks of "constructive" engagement with Iran, Tehran has dismissed reports of substantive talks as fabrication. Other accounts suggest messages are being exchanged through intermediaries, with the possibility of meetings in third countries. The White House itself describes the situation as "fluid". Such divergence is not a sign of diplomacy gaining ground; it is evidence of a narrative still struggling to find coherence.