From $4 trn to a jobs economy

NEXT PHASE OF INDIA'S DEVELOPMENT MUST BE CITIZEN-FIRST, WITH EMPLOYMENT AT ITS CORE

- TV MOHANDAS PAI NISHA HOLLA

BUDGET 2026 ARRIVES at an inflection point in India’s economic journey.Over the past 12 years, India has undergone one of the most consequential development phases since Independence. Nominal GDP has expanded from roughly $2 trillion to $4 trillion, driven by sustained public investment, large-scale infrastructure creation, and the delivery of basic amenities to millions of citizens. Roads, railways, power, housing,water,sanitation, digital connectivity, and financial inclusion have transformed everyday life for the majority of Indians.

This phase of nation-building has also created the conditions for faster economic growth and formalisation. A large aspirati-onal class has emerged, particularly among workers transitioning out of agriculture. The foundations have been laid. The next decisive challenge is clear—job creation must be the priority of Budget 2026.

The case for putting employment at the centre of fiscal policy is demographic. India is entering a prolonged phase of labour market pressure driven by a large youth bulge. Citizens born between 1990 and 2010, estimated at over 50 crore, are either already in the workforce or will enter it over the next decade. For the next 15-20 years, this cohort will demand stable, reasonably paid, and dignified jobs.

If this demand is met, India can convert its demographic profile into a sustained growth advantage. If not, the dividend risks becoming a structural constraint. Employment, therefore, is a macroeconomic and sociopolitical imperative.

Contrary to claims of jobless growth’, administrative employment data tells a more nuanced and encouraging story. India’s formal employment base has expanded steadily over the past decade, with a sharp rebound after the pandemic.