Tidings of good rains

The absence of the El Niño factor largely behind forecasts of normal to above-normal rains

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FAVOURABLE AUGURY for agricultural operations during the kharif season is the prospect of above-normal southwest monsoon rains from June to September this year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Private weather forecaster Skymet, for its part, has predicted normal rainfall. Average to above-average rainfall is the blended forecast of the UK Met Office, the National Centres for Environmental Prediction, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Normal means that rainfall over the season is between 96 and 104% of the long period average of 868.6 mm. The IMD states it would be 105%, while Skymet pegs it at 103%. If IMD's predictions hold true, this would be the second straight year of above-normal precipitation after below-normal rainfall in 2023.