India’s coal revival looks impossible to achieve

ALMOST EVERYWHERE

- DAVID FICKLING

ON the planet, the great surge of coal power that fuelled two centuries of industrialisation is receding.In rich countries, consumption peaked two decades ago, and has since fallen by about half. China managed to suck up every metric ton the developed world spurned since then, but that tide is now turning, too. Coal-fired power there fell about 1% last year, despite a 5% jump in electricity usage. Even freezing weather in December was unable to shift the picture: Fossil generation was the lowest since 2022, in a month when demand is typically strong.

As recently as 2024, the International Energy Agency predicted Chinese coal demand would keep breaking records for the next three years. It now reckons it’s heading into decline, and will lose 180 million tons through 2030—similar to closing all the coal power stations and blast furnaces in Japan.

There’s one remaining bright spot—India. But even there, coal’s defences are crumbling.Consumption will rise by about 200 million tons through 2030, according to the IEA, offsetting all the decline from China, much as China once offset the decline from rich countries. The government is promising to build 97 gigawatts of additional coal power by 2035, nearly 50% more than is currently in place. Expansions might keep going as late as 2047 under proposals currently being discussed.