Escalating Indo-Pak tensions

There is a need for dialogue and diplomacy and keeping off-ramps open to enable the neighbours to pull back from the brink of going to war

- N CHANDRA MOHAN

THERE IS A feeling of déjà vu around the steady drumbeat for retribution following the dastardly cross-border terrorist attack near Pahalgam in Kashmir on April 22. In 2016 and 2019, too, there was a similar clamour after the Uri attacks and suicide bombing of 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers in Pulwama. What followed was a surgical strike by the Indian army's commandos on terrorist launch pads in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and air strikes in Balakot in Pakistan. This time, however, is different as dark clouds are gathering with the armies of both nations on high alert. The dangerous stand-off between two nuclear-armed countries has set off alarms internationally with calls for restraint as any miscalculation could lead to a war.

There is no doubt that India will retaliate at a time of its choosing with Prime Minister Narendra Modi giving full operational freedom to the armed forces in this regard. The surprise element for cross-border surgical strikes, however, may have passed as Pakistan is fully prepared. A calibrated response is inevitable as there are kinetic options below the threshold of an all-out conflict. Despite "unprovoked violations" of the ceasefire agreement along the line of control, the Indian army has shown restraint so far and has even warned Pakistan's army. Covert retaliation appears to be the most efficacious option as "war is not an option...it is not just the last option but the last bad option" as rightly argued by the former chief of Research and Analysis Wing, AS Dulat.