Duopoly overhang may ring through new year for telecom

THE GHOST OF a telecom sector duopoly may be far from buried in the upcoming year even though 2025 saw a landmark Supreme Court judgment providing cashstrapped Vodafone Idea (Vi) crucial breathing room.

- URVI MALVANIA

For Vi, the focus in 2026 will be on getting the house in order, while for peers Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, it is expected to be one where pricing power, enterprise demand and network-readiness will determine who captures the limited pockets of growth still left in the market.

“A tariff hike in the January-March quarter is most likely to be the first major event in the sector. The impact of the July 2024 tariff hike on subscribers and revenues is behind the industry, and with Jio preparing for its IPO, the timing for the next tariff revision lines up,” a telecom analyst said.

Jio and Airtel are poised to lead further tariff actions, with their performance likely to hinge on how effectively they execute and defend these. The quantum and nature will be different though. Experts said the estimated price hike would be in the 10-12% range and price interventions could be more nuanced.