US Tariff Heat Looms Over India's Russian Oil Supplies

Trade War

- Arunima Bharadwaj

A proposed US bill that includes a 500% tariff on countries importing oil from Russia could significantly disrupt Indian supplies, and also raise its oil import bill, industry experts warn. US President Donald Trump is considering the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, which aims to pressure Russia over the Ukraine war.

Russia has become India's top crude supplier since the Ukraine conflict, now accounting for over 35% of India's total oil imports. Indian refiners turned to Russian barrels due to steep discounts, even after Western sanctions were imposed.

"Suppose Russian crude is priced out due to tariffs or tighter compliance risks, we anticipate a gradual but steady reallocation toward WTI, Brazilian pre-salt barrels, and a resurgence in Middle Eastern term flows," Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at Kpler, had told FE.

He highlighted that if secondary tariffs are imposed and actuality comes hard on Russian crude, India's oil import bill could rise significantly, potentially by $3-6 per replacement barrel, depending on origin.