Retail inflation declines to 0.5% in Oct

THE HEADLINE RETAIL inflation for October is estimated to have fallen to arecordlowin the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) series primarily due to the continued fall in food prices, high-base and the impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts, economists said.

- KULDEEP SINGH

TheCPlinflation is estimated toplunge toaround 0.5% in Octoberfrom 1.54% in September, given the median of an FE poll of economists.

This would mean the key inflation figure might have stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4% for the ninth consecutive month and below the lower end of the central bank’s target range of 2-6% for the third time in four months. Economists said October is likely to mark the trough inthecurrent disinflation cycle.

At 0.5%, it would be the lowest print in the current CPI series, with 2012 as the base year. The previous lowest inflation print in the current series was 1.46% in June 2017. The governmentis set to changethe base year of the CPI early next year to 2024.