Elections: Who will take the lead at County Hall?

On May 1, electors go to the polls for 81 seats at Kent County Council, the final election before the authority is broken up to make way for a new local government structure in Kent. Most seasoned observers believe that it will be a hung council. Local democracy reporter Simon Finlay shares an overview ahead of the polls...

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THERE are many possible outcomes on May 1, and any one may come to pass.

The Conservatives could retain overall control of KCC but with far fewer members or form a minority ruling administration if they fall short of the 41 required.

Given its recent history, the latter scenario is thought to be a more likely outcome, as the ruling party was forced to make uncomfortable cuts amid a government funding squeeze but might have to find a partner to govern.

Although Kent has long been regarded as a "Conservative" county, by and large, former Tory domains like Tunbridge Wells, support has evaporated.

A decade ago, the idea that Folkestone and Hythe could turn red from blue at Westminster in July 2024 would have been almost unthinkable.

Reform UK might win enough seats to become the biggest party with overall control or take too few to form a minority authority. Party leader Nigel Farage would not commit to winning outright, and few believe pollster Electoral Calculus's recent prediction that it would secure 41 seats.

Suppose the Liberal Democrats, the Labour Party and Green Party plus sundry independents can secure the 41 seats in a target-driven campaign where tactical voting comes into play. In that case, a rainbow alliance is certainly not out of the question.

All might say publicly they want to take control, but how many privately believe they can?

However, the present leaders of those groups, observers say, could work together and take the authority into the phase where, under the government's reorganisation programme, KCC effectively dismantles itself in three years' time.

If the message to the voters, particularly the undecided, is to keep Reform UK and the Conservatives out of power at County Hall, that will require a certain level of collusion none of the parties might feel comfortable with or end up being self-defeating.

Only they can decide if it is a risk worth taking.