Inflation unexpectedly hits 18-month high, but interest rate cut hopes still on track

UK inflation rose to a near 18-month high in June as food prices surged for the third month running, according to official figures.

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Consumer Prices Index inflation rose to 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May and the highest since January 2024.

The increase was unexpected, with most economists forecasting inflation to remain unchanged at 3.4%.

The ONS said annual food price inflation hit the highest level since February 2024, while transport costs also pushed up the cost of living, as air fares saw the largest monthly rise in price for seven years.

ONS acting chief economist Richard Heys said: “Inflation ticked up in June driven mainly by motor fuel prices which fell only slightly, compared with a much larger decrease at this time last year.

“Food price inflation has increased for the third consecutive month to its highest annual rate since February of last year.

“However, it remains well below the peak seen in early 2023.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said there was “more to do” to help bring inflation down.

She said: “I know working people are still struggling with the cost of living.”