Sweet treats under siege as cocoa prices soar globally

Climate shocks, crop disease and a global supply shortage are resulting in South Africans paying up to 40% more for their favourite chocolate bars and slabs

- By Kara le Roux

World Chocolate Day is celebrated annually on 7 July, but this year there wasn't much to be merry about.

In May, global cocoa prices hit R197,500 per tonne. From R154,000 in July 2024, it has been a relentless upwards march and it's hitting South Africans' wallets. And, if that Aero or Bar One feels lighter lately, it's because the world has entered an unprecedented era of chocflation.

Ghana and Ivory Coast together produce the lion's share of the world's cocoa. Extreme weather and crop diseases have hit these producing regions exceptionally hard over the past five years.

"The increased variability of seasonal rainfall in the producing areas of the world due to climate change has threatened the viability of cocoa production," says FNB senior agricultural economist Paul Makube.

Cocoa trees need temperatures of between 20°C and 30°C and just the right amount of rainfall to grow, Makube explains, but droughts are becoming more frequent and farmers are being forced to adapt or abandon their crops.

In addition to climate extremes, crop diseases are decimating harvests. Makube says the cocoa swollen shoot virus has been causing disease that has cut about 17% of Ghana's annual cocoa output over the past few years.

Other disease threats that have adversely impacted production include witches' broom, frost pod rot and black pod rot, says Thabile Nkunjana, senior economist at the National Agricultural Marketing Council.

"The production, yields and quality of cocoa have all been significantly impacted by these factors and consequently prices have risen sharply in recent years," Nkunjana says.

The numbers are eye-watering. As of June, cocoa hit R215/kg - the highest since the World Bank began tracking prices in 1960, Nkunjana says. In 2023, it was just R66/kg.

The International Cocoa Organisation now predicts a global supply shortfall of nearly 500,000 metric tonnes for the 2023/24 season.