We are counting tourists, not measuring value: Part 2

WE are celebrating the biggest tourism year in our history — and risk wasting it.

- By Stefan Furkhan

In Part 1 of this series, I focused on what our customers are telling us. In Part 2, I turn to what the industry itself has been saying for years, often behind closed doors, in association meetings, boardrooms and committee rooms, and ask the uncomfortable question: why do these complaints so rarely translate into reform?

In the past, I have sat on tourism committees, task forces and associations. The problems have been remarkably consistent. What has changed is not the diagnosis, only the excuses for not implementing the cures.

At the time of writing, Sri Lanka Tourism is targeting three million arrivals and $5 billion in revenue in 2026. That sounds impressive. But when you examine the numbers, it becomes clear that this is not simply a volume target, it isa quality shift mandate.

Today Sri Lanka closes 2025 with roughly 2.4 million arrivals and about $3.5 billion in tourism revenue. To reach the 2026 target, the industry must grow arrivals by 25% and revenue by 43% in just one year.

That means the average revenue per tourist must rise from around $1,460 today to about $1,670 — an increase of roughly 15% per visitor. If average length of stay does not increase, daily spending must rise from about $170 per day to almost $200 per day.

Thailand already averages well above $220 per day and the Maldives over $700. Sri Lanka is trying to reach mid-tier performance while still operating a low-yield system.

Are we structurally capable of delivering that growth?

At three million arrivals, Sri Lanka would need to deliver nearly nine million room nights a year at today’s average stay lengths.

Many coastal and hill-country destinations already report sellouts during peak season, which means the system is operating close to capacity when demand is highest.