Between Tories And Reform Lies A Good Centre-Right Party

THE CONSERVATIVES began this election campaign by telling wavering voters that a vote for Reform UK was a wasted vote that the next Prime Minister is inevitably going to be either Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer and, therefore, voting for anyone else would simply help the latter into Number 10.

- ROSS CLARK

But with the latest YouGov poll showing the gap between the Tories and Reform down to just two percentage points, you wonder how long they can carry on making that argument.

True, our first-past-the-post electoral system favours parties which have their vote concentrated in certain areas rather than spread thinly.

And even if Reform UK does achieve 17 per cent of the vote on July 4, it is not guaranteed to win a single seat.

Nevertheless, it is quite likely that over the next few days, we will start to see some polls showing Reform with a higher share of the vote than the Conservatives. And should that happen, we will be in uncharted territory.

There is one certainty: Reform UK climbing into second place would further embolden its would-be voters.

And we'd soon reach the situation where Conservative seats were projected to tip over into Reform's hands. In fact, it would be possible to see Nigel Farage becoming leader of the opposition in reality as well as spirit.

There is no disguising what has caused this week's bounce for Reform UK. Farage's entry into the contest proper has not only energised his own party, it's pepped up an extremely dull election campaign.