Rice can feed the world – even with fewer farmers

IN A WORLD worried about looming food shortages triggered by the climate crisis, the collapse in rice prices — now approaching their lowest in 18 years — is evidence that interventions by governments and modern agricultural methods may save the day. The key is productivity: more food from fewer farmers.

- By Javier Blas

When we think about technological advances, what comes to mind are the internet, smartphones, and now the arrival of artificial intelligence. But farming has enjoyed a dramatic and often overlooked productivity revolution: Over the last century, crop yields have exploded.

Rice is a great example. In 1975, farmers around the world harvested an average of 2.4 metric tons per hectare; the yield improved to 3.8 tons by 2000, and today it’s almost doubled to 4.7 tons. Other crops, from corn to soybean to wheat, have also experienced massive gains, allowing larger crops even in more difficult climate conditions. And those gains can be sustained.

The corn market is also paradigmatic of our newfound ability to produce more food. For decades until the early 1940s, yields flatlined at about 20 to 30 bushels per acre. From 1945 onward, they’ve steadily improved, first at a rate of about one bushel per acre every year, and more recently at a rate of about two per year. This year, the US Department of Agriculture expects farmers to reap nearly 189 bushels per acre — a record, and double what was possible 50 years ago.

We're all benefiting from that little-known productivity boom: Without it, food prices would be significantly higher, and larger swathes of the world would regularly go hungry.