The Federal Reserve Is Driving Blind

The Federal Reserve is driving blindfolded. That's my single most important takeaway from the central bank's big policy announcement on Wednesday.

- JONATHAN LEVIN

The Federal Reserve is driving blindfolded. That's my single most important takeaway from the central bank's big policy announcement on Wednesday. On the predictable side, the Fed kept policy rates in a range of 4.25-4.5 per cent, and the rate-setting committee pledged to slow the pace at which it's allowing securities to roll off its balance sheet.

The median Fed participant only subtly updated baseline economic projections for 2025 to show 2.7 per cent PCE or personal consumption expenditure inflation (versus 2.5 per cent in December's outlook), 4.4 per cent unemployment (compared with 4.3 per cent), and 1.7 per cent growth in gross domestic product or GDP (versus 2.1 per cent). The projections suggested 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, unchanged from the previous estimate.

But the most jarring development was the number of Fed board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents who reported heightened uncertainty around their outlooks for joblessness, inflation and GDP.