Developing disorder

China's step will shake up supplies of rare earths

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China's control of the supply chain for rare earth minerals, critical for multiple sectors from energy transition to aviation and defence, has long been known to be a global vulnerability. In response to the prohibitively high tariffs that United States President Donald Trump has placed on Chinese exports, leaders in Beijing have finally begun to deploy this long-feared economic weapon. They have restricted the exports of seven rare earths — out of a possible 17 that they list — unless the exporter possesses a proper licence for shipment. Most exporters have noted that the licensing system does not effectively exist at the moment, and so this — at least in the near term — may amount to an export ban. It is unclear whether the Chinese authorities genuinely plan to set up a real export-licensing authority with sufficient capacity to scrutinise exports. Even if they do, this will bring significant friction to the system. And that will possibly allow bureaucrats in Beijing to target firms and customers in countries deemed geopolitically sensitive — the US, obviously, bu