Demography without a TFR obsession

We should be seeking solutions to falling birth rates through means other than just exhorting women to have more children

- R JAGANNATHAN

Ever since politicians and public intellectuals internalized the truth embedded in the statement "demography is destiny," they have been trying to roll back the tide. In Europe and America, they have tried to do this by focusing on restricting illegal immigration, which is impacting their demography, and in India, we think it is all about raising the total fertility rate (TFR). A TFR of around 2.1 live births per woman is considered ideal to keep population levels stable.

In October, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu fretted about falling TFRs in their two states, and indicated that they may incentivize families to produce more children. According to data from the latest National Family Health Survey and other reports, while Tamil Nadu has a TFR of 1.8, Andhra has 1.7.

Bihar leads the table with a massive TFR of 3, while Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand figure lower at 2.4 and 2.3, indicating that even in parts of the populous Hindi belt, rates are falling.

A few days ago, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief, Mohan Bhagwat, raised the same issue and suggested that women should opt to have three children. Though he did not specifically say so, he was probably referring to the relatively low TFRs among Hindus compared to Muslims.

For the southern states, which will lose Lok Sabha seats after the next Census and delimitation exercise, raising birth rates seems like a priority. It's not going to work, for women may not choose to have more children just to receive some incentives or for political reasons. Birth rates start falling when economic conditions improve and women receive good quality education and take up jobs. As one's economic situation improves, the cost of raising children also rises disproportionately, as schooling and healthcare costs zoom. So, merely receiving cash bonuses or more maternity leave is not going to cut it for them.