Analysts cut growth outlook for PHL

MOODY'S Analytics slashed growth forecasts for the Philippines for 2026 and 2027 after a "weaker-than-expected" economic expansion in 2025.

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Moody's Analytics slashed growth forecasts for the Philippines for 2026 and 2027 after a “weaker-than expected” economic expansion in 2025.

Maybank Investment Banking Group also trimmed its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines in 2026 to 4.5 percent, 0.4 percentage points lower than its earlier projection of 4.9 percent.

“We have trimmed our growth forecasts slightly from the February baseline, lowering 2026 to 4.9 percent from 5.1 percent and 2027 to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent, while keeping 2028 unchanged,” Sarah Tan, Assistant Director-Economist at Moody's Analytics said in an email.

“The revision reflects a re assessment of domestic momentum after weaker-than-expected expansion in 2025, rather than any major change in our geopolitical assumptions,” Tan added.

Moody's Analytics’ revised growth forecast of 4.9 percent for this year is slightly below the government’s target of 5 percent to 6 percent for 2026.

In its baseline scenario, Moody's Analytics assumes the Middle East conflict “remains contained and ends soon.”

As such, Tan said the direct impact on Philippine growth should be limited.