'A five-way marginal like we've never seen before' Election battle

A POLL of polls has the Greens favourites to win the West of England metro mayoral election tomorrow.

- Adam POSTANS

But the latest survey of voting intentions, published on Sunday, actually puts Labour in first place.

Independent statistician Nigel Marriott, from Bath, has updated his forecast from earlier this month, which had the Greens narrowly in the lead, and adjusted how he has crunched the numbers in the wake of two polls since then, along with a prediction by politically neutral analysts.

He said the race remained a five-way marginal “the likes of which have never been seen in England before” and that there was cause for optimism for all the main parties.

Mr Marriott has now factored in polls over the last few days by YouGov and MoreInCommon, which asked who people would vote for to be the elected head of the West of England Combined Authority (Weca) - in charge of the region's transport, strategic planning, adult skills and economy - and a forecast by Elections Predictor and Political Commentary.

On his blog, he said: “The metro mayor election will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast.