The election’s last-mile test

For weeks, opinion polls have consistently shown the People’s Party (PP) maintaining a narrow but persistent lead over the Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party ahead of the Feb 8 general election.

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The surveys have fostered a prevailing narrative of a two-horse race, with PP positioned as the frontrunner and BJT as the most serious challenger.Yet history suggests that polling advantages in Thailand's fluid electoral landscape are often fragile. As election day draws near, a factor largely absent from opinion surveys — political “ammunition”, or campaign resources — may once again prove decisive.

At face value, the numbers appear encouraging for PP. Polls reflect strong support among urban voters, younger demographics and first-time voters drawn to the party's reformist platform and its promise to break with traditional patronage-based politics. To its supporters, PP has successfully framed the election as a contest between progress and stagnation, positioning itself as a vehicle for structural change, transparency and long-term reform.

However, opinion polls measure sentiment, not behaviour, a political expert said. They capture what voters say they prefer at a given moment, not necessarily how they will act when faced with immediate pressures, incentives or uncertainty in the final days before casting a ballot. In Thailand, where constituency-level dynamics remain powerful and late vote-switching is common, this distinction matters greatly.

The expert said BJT’s strength lies precisely in areas that polls struggle to quantify. The party has built an extensive grassroots network over multiple election cycles, anchored by influential local figures, political clans and canvassers who operate far from the spotlight of national surveys. While PP’s campaign thrives on social media visibility and policy-driven messaging, BJT’s machine works quietly, methodically, and, critics argue, expensively.