TARIFF-LINKED VOLATILITY EASES, BUT RISK STILL HIGH

Global stocks have faced unusual turbulence in the past three weeks since US President Donald Trump announced higher-than-expected reciprocal tariffs against dozens of countries.

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Trade tensions eased around the middle of the month after Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause (except for China, which retaliated with higher tariffs), and waivers for certain segments such as mobile phones, PCs and semiconductors.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) swung in a wide range between 1,050 and 1,150 points during the period, with volatile movement in most blue chips, except for solid performances by safe havens such as banks and information and communication technology (ICT) stocks. Volatility subsided this week, albeit with some negative news flows, as the market reacted with movements of a smaller magnitude.

Overall, we expect the market to continue in alternating risk-on/risk-off modes in the coming week, though it will likely be less volatile than in early April. We expect the SET index to trade within a range of 1,100 and 1,150 points for the week.

The main factors influencing sentiment will gradually shift from the trade war to results of the Thai banking sector and earnings previews of major real sector companies.