Oil forecasts rise as Mideast war rages

Analysts are lifting their oil price estimates for this year and 2027 amid transport disruption in the Middle East, even though the potential release of reserves by the G7 and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) could help temporarily alleviate supply pressures.

- NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG

Tris Ratings raised its 2026 annual average oil price forecast to US$70 a barrel, from $63, for Brent in a base case scenario, with the Hormuz Strait remaining effectively closed for around a month. In its Global Economic Outlook released on March 11, the credit rating agency expects oil prices to remain in the $90-100 range through March before falling to the mid-$60s by the second half of the year in a “fundamentally oversupplied market”.

“However, there are huge uncertainties and the possibility of more sustained disruptions to oil shipments and significant damage to production facilities in the Middle East,” Tris said.