Navigating new currents: Thailand-US trade after the tariff ruling

Current volatility can become a catalyst for transformation.

- By Dr Nalinee Taveesin

The recent decision by the US Supreme Court that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in imposing broad tariffs marks an important institutional clarification in US trade governance. The court reaffirmed that tariff powers ultimately reside with Congress.

Yet this is not the end of US tariff activism. The administration has already moved to rely on other statutory tools, including Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, to impose temporary across-the-board tariffs. In practical terms, this means policy volatility remains. The legal basis may shift, but protectionist impulses persist.

For Thailand, the issue is not political — it is strategic.

THAILAND’S POSITION

The latest US trade data show America’s goods deficit reached historic levels in 2025. Thailand now ranks seventh among countries with which the US runs the largest trade deficits. Our bilateral surplus expanded sharply, rising 58% year-on-year to $71.8 billion.

This expansion was driven primarily by electronics, electrical appliances and high-technology components. Exports of computer equipment, integrated circuits and related products surged as global supply chains diversified away from concentrated production hubs. Thailand has benefited from this structural rebalancing.

Traditional sectors such as rubber and rice faced price pressures and declining shipment volumes. Automotive exports remained strong, and notably many Thai-built vehicles and parts were exempted from the most recent US tariff round. Processed foods, petrochemicals, textiles and machinery continue to form important pillars of bilateral trade.

The US absorbs roughly one-fifth of Thailand's total exports. This concentration creates opportunity, but also exposure.

THE REAL MEANING