Iran: Don't intervene there, Mr Trump

Any day now, the United States will “come to the rescue” of the protesters in the streets of Iran’s cities and American bombers will unleash “hell” on the minions of the theocratic regime — or not, as the case may be.

- Gwynne Dyer

It’s nearly three weeks since the demos started on recent Dec 29 and Mr Trump's threats are getting old. His latest exhortation to the protesters, whose will to continue seems to be fraying a bit, told them once again that “Help is on the way!’ but there is no useful way that he can keep his promise. Bombs alone won't work.

Mr Trump's bombers cannot eliminate the elite Revolutionary Guard troops and Basij militiamen who are killing the protesters without flattening the cities they all live in together. His high-tech missiles can pick off the regime's political leadership in their homes, but others will simply replace them.

We saw how smoothly President Ebra-him Raisolsadati was replaced by Masoud Pezeshkian when the former was killed in ahelicopter crash in 2024. There are three designated successors to the 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is not a regime that will crumble because of a few deaths.

A full-scale invasion might do the trick, but Donald Trump couldn't put “boots on the ground” even if he wanted to. Given his understandable reluctance to incur serious American military casualties, bombs are the only form of violence he can use against the regime of the ayatollahs. So where are they?