Geopolitical risks cloud equity market outlook

Oil prices loom over sentiment

- NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE

Geopolitical tensions could intensify ahead of the US midterm election cycle, says Mr Boontham, suggesting a conflict may last 3-4 months before easing.

(AFP)

Escalating tensions between Iran, the US and Israel could trigger a major military confrontation within 3-4 months, potentially driving crude oil prices as high as US$135 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, pundits warn.

Speaking at a recent event hosted by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the Investment Analysts Association, Boontham Rajitpinyolert, a lecturer in economics at Kasetsart University, said he anticipates a 60% probability that the US will launch military strikes on Iran within 3-4 months, potentially as part of a larger operation that could focus on regime change.

Geopolitical tensions could intensify ahead of the US midterm election cycle, while Iran's military capability, particularly with support from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, suggests the conflict window may last 3-4 months before easing, with conditions potentially stabilising between May and June, said Mr Boontham.

In a worst-case scenario, he said crude prices could spike to $135 per barrel, which would significantly affect global inflation and corporate earnings.