Five energy market trends for 2026

Energy markets enter 2026 in a downbeat mood as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the outlook and increasing signs of swelling oil and gas supplies threaten to sink prices.

- Ron Bousso

This past year was a wild one for the oil and gas industry, punctuated by the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June, US President Donald Trump's trade wars, the intensified targeting of energy infrastructure in Russia in its war against Ukraine, Opec's often perplexing production decisions and the recently threatened US blockade of Venezuela.

So what's in store for 2026? Here are five trends likely to shape the energy landscape in 2026 and beyond.

THE YEAR OF THE GLUT?

Investors will keep a razor-sharp focus on signs of swelling oil inventories next year after crude prices fell nearly 20% in 2025 to about US$60 (1,892 baht) a barrel on fears of significant oversupply.

Global oil output has surged over the past year. The US — the world’s biggest oil producer — ramped up production, as did Canada and Brazil, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, a group known as Opec+, reversed years of cuts.

The International Energy Agency forecasts supply will exceed demand in 2026 by a head-spinning 3.85 million barrels per day (bpd), the equivalent of around 4% of global demand.

Yet Opec analysts see a largely balanced market next year, creating one of the sharpest forecast divergences in decades. Uncertainty about the supply-demand balance has been compounded by China's large-scale crude stockpiling since April. Traders have limited visibility about these volumes, though they are estimated to be sizeable at roughly 500,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations.