Election volatility to hit Thai stock market

Thailand's stock market is likely to face a volatile year in 2026 as political uncertainty surrounds the upcoming general election, raising concerns over a potential policy vacuum that would weigh on economic momentum and investor sentiment, according to Bualuang Securities (BLS).

- NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE

Thailand's return to campaign season is likely to generate short-term market fluctuations, said Piriyapon Kongvanich, a strategist at BLS.

While the outcome of the election is important, the more critical issue for investors is the “policy gap during the political transition”, which will be a key determinant of both economic performance and the direction of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index in 2026, he said.

BLS noted political uncertainty is expected to weaken fiscal stimulus, which currently serves as the main engine of Thailand's economic growth.

The brokerage outlined two scenarios based on the duration and severity of the policy vacuum.