Domestic drivers of bilateral conflict

The latest flareup and intensification of the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia should be understood less as a new crisis and more as a resumption of a bilateral clash that erupted in late July.

- Thitinan Pongsudhirak

At that time, US President Donald Trump used a narrow time window to press both sides to halt the violence between July 24 and 28, offering trade negotiations ahead of a tariff deadline on Aug 1. But the renewed violence this time — fueled largely by domestic political pressures and inflamed nationalism on both sides, may end up worsening before domestic conditions conduce a cessation of hostilities and a dialogue can be established.

When fighting broke out in July following months of tit-for-tat posturing over disputed border claims dating back to February, both countries were already under pressure from Washington. Cambodia and Thailand faced reciprocal tariffs of 49% and 36%, respectively, as part of Mr Trump's unilateral levies announced on April 2. The ceasefire that followed brought those rates down to 19% each, aligning them with peer economies in the region.

With the US their largest export market — Cambodia running a trade surplus of roughly $12 billion and Thailand about $45 billion in 2024 — both governments pragmatically acceded to President Trump's ceasefire ultimatum in anticipation of trade relief. That process culminated in a so-called “peace accord” signed in Kuala Lumpur on Oct 26, hosted by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in his capacity as the annually rotated Asean chair and presided over by Mr Trump, who publicly counted the deal among his peacemaking achievements in pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize.

Cambodia emerged with a codified agreement, while Thailand was handed a framework to be finalised by the end of this year. The accord has now unravelled amid renewed and intensifying fighting. By all measurements, this armed conflict has become Asean’s worst interstate clash between two member states in its 58 years of existence.