Commodities nearing super cycle

Commodities have had a rough decade, but a confluence of structural factors suggests that after years of underinvestment, the stage may be set for the next super cycle.

- Taosha Wang

Commodities super cycles are long, powerful waves driven by major thematic shifts. The 1970s super cycle saw a mix of geopolitical supply shocks and loose monetary policy. The early 2000s super cycle was defined by China's historic urbanisation boom.

Today, there are structural factors on both the supply and demand sides of the commodities equation that could catalyse the next boom.

To begin, the supply outlook for commodities overall has a few points of vulnerability that, if tested, could support a bullish long-term outlook.

First, critical resources and the capacity to process them are highly concentrated in just a few jurisdictions.

For instance, S&P Global reports that over 40% of the world's copper production comes from Chile and Peru. Over 50% of the world's iron ore is supplied by Australia and Brazil. And Kazakhstan alone accounts for over 40% of global uranium mine supply.

This concentration extends beyond extraction to refining. China refines nearly 90% of the world's rare earth elements, which are vital for everything from electric vehicles to defence systems. It also refines over 40% of the world's copper, critical for AI and electrification.

We have already seen examples of countries using their control of commodities supply as geopolitical leverage. China temporarily restricted rare earth exports in 2025 during trade disputes, and the US included long-term Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) purchase commitments in its tariff agreements with the European Union and South Korea.