BoT panel forecasts cautious growth outlook

The Bank of Thailand expects Thai GDP growth for this year and next year to remain below its potential, pressured by both cyclical and structural factors.

- SOMRUEDI BANCHONGDUANG

According to the edited minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings held on Dec 12 and 17, 2025 and published yesterday, the Thai economy in 2026 and 2027 is expected to grow at a rate below its potential, with increasing risks stemming from both cyclical and structural factors, alongside rising vulnerabilities in certain sectors.

For 2026 and 2027, the Thai economy is projected to grow by 1.5% and 2.3% respectively compared with an estimated 2.2% in 2025. This outlook reflects a moderation in private consumption in line with income growth, with emerging signs of increased caution among middleto high-income households, particularly regarding spending on nonessential goods.

Aslowdown in merchandise exports is also expected to weigh on economic growth, primarily due to the impact of US tariff measures.