A new agenda for climate-resilient development

Mitigating the worst effects of climate change requires reconciling ambition and justice.

- Saliem Fakir

But achieving both a just energy transition and ambitious global climate action depends on trade rules that foster equitable development. To facilitate the shift to low-carbon economies, developing countries must have reliable access to green technologies, investments, and international markets.

Regrettably, many of today's trade policies constrain developing countries' green ambitions. In particular, the securitisation of international trade — driven by the geopolitical interests of major powers and emerging blocs — threatens to disrupt global supply chains, limit access to emerging technologies, and reinforce existing power imbalances. If left unchecked, this trend risks undermining multilateral cooperation and regional integration efforts across the Global South.

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is a prime example. While the CBAM is intended to position the EU as a global leader on climate action, many developing countries particularly in Africa - view it as a protectionist measure and question its alignment with the principles of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

These concerns are well-founded. Research suggests that African countries could lose up to $25 billion (816 billion baht) annually as a direct result of the CBAM, and that the proposed amendments may not always stand to benefit African exporters. Moreover, despite the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the EU continues to pursue fragmented bilateral deals that undermine Africa's integration agenda and weaken the coherence of regional trade strategies.