A gallium lens on China's minerals dominance

The price of gallium has been rising ever since China started restricting exports of the exotic metal in August 2023.

- Andy Home

This is not surprising since China has a near monopoly on global gallium production, just as it does across the critical materials spectrum.

How much should we care that the price of something most people have never heard of is trading at 14-year highs?

After all, global production last year was just 760 metric tonnes, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Even at today's elevated prices the world market's nominal value is a modest US$550 million (18 billion baht).

The metal is used in such tiny quantities that there is zero impact on the cost of a mobile phone or an electric vehicle.

However, if you're in the semiconductor business, it matters a lot. And it matters even more to US defence planners, which is why China chose element number 31 as a metallic pressure point in the first place.

THE MULTIPLIER EFFECT

Because gallium is used in so many modern technological gadgets, there is a multiplier effect to the economic cost of the Chinese government's export restrictions.

The USGS estimates that a one-year suspension of Chinese gallium exports would translate into a $3.1 billion hit to the US economy.

Around half of the decrease would come from the semiconductor sector and the other half from a range of downstream industries such as printed circuit assembly, computers and electric vehicles.

China hasn't totally suspended exports, although it has banned direct sales to the United States. But outbound flows have slowed since the dual-use regulations were introduced in 2023.