What's at stake in Nigeria's presidential election

NIGERIA—AFRICA’S most populous country, largest economy, and top oil producer—will hold a presidential election on Feb. 25. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, now finishing his second four-year term, is ineligible to run for reelection. Even if he could run, he probably wouldn't win.

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The economy, still recovering from a COVID-19 shock that triggered the country’s second recession in just five years, continues to struggle. Inflation reached 21.5% at the end of 2022. The unemployment rate stands at 33% for all adults and 42.5% for young adults. Some 40% of the country’s 221 million people live below the poverty line, wrote the World Bank in March 2022, and many Nigerians— especially in the country’s north—also lack education and access to basic infrastructure, such as electricity, safe drinking water, and improved sanitation.”

The value of the naira, Nigeria’s currency, plunged last year as oil theft, a chronic problem, ate into the country’s oil exports. A plan to replace old banknotes with new ones has gone completely off the rails, leading to cash shortages, protests, vandalism of bank buildings, and fights at ATMs. Acute fuel shortages for consumers have also set voters’ teeth on edge.