CHECKING HIS POWER

In the year ahead, Trump will face iffy courts, disappointed voters, and a messy world

- BY IAN BREMMER

IN 2025, DONALD TRUMP RETURNED TO GLOBAL CENTER stage with big plans. In year one of his second term, he expanded the formal and informal powers of the presidency in ways that challenge the American political system itself. In 2026, he looks set to up the ante at home. But the disruption he has created abroad is set for a sharp turn this year, as Trump discovers the limits of his (and American) power.

No one should ever use the word revolution lightly. It implies a fundamental change in the way a nation is governed—an effort to overthrow what exists and replace it with something new. The motives driving a revolution might be ideological, clashing ethnic or tribal identities, competition for wealth, or a combination of all these. But whatever the force that draws the battle lines, a true revolution always depends on the ability and willingness of powerful actors to seize an opportunity created by a belief across society that the existing system is broken, and therefore illegitimate. Trump has done exactly that.

His revolution is not an economic one. Yes, he has imposed the highest tariffs since the 1930s, moved to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, and dabbled in an American form of Chinese-style state capitalism—for example, by acquiring for the federal government golden shares in U.S. Steel, a stake in technology giant Intel, and a percentage of sales by chipmakers Nvidia and AMD. But these policies are tactical changes. They don’t transform how the U.S. economy functions.