THE NEW NON-ALIGNMENT

For India, the way forward is clear. Exploit the Russia connection without becoming hostage to it. Engage China but never on Beijing's terms

- BY LIEUTENANT GENERAL A.B. SHIVANE (RETD)

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the biggest-ever Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit yet in the Chinese city of Tianjin—a gathering of world leaders including Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin—the world watched India's deft balancing act. The meeting saw a churn taking shape in the geopolitical canvas, sending a clear message of India's strategic autonomy. It was a test of posture: how to remain engaged in Eurasia's politics without being consumed by them, how to signal strength without being cornered, and how to extract value from a forum that is increasingly contested.

Talk of reviving the old Russia-India-China (RIC) framework surfaced yet again at the summit. Russia now champions its revival, buoyed by the promise of the Eurasian clout: together, RIC's GDP stands at nearly $54 trillion, with $5 trillion in exports and 38 per cent of humanity under its demographic umbrella. Moscow, increasingly isolated by the west, finds it convenient to pitch RIC as an alternative platform where it can remain relevant. Beijing, too, likes the idea of a trilateral that can project anti-western optics, especially when its own global image is under stress. But nostalgia does not substitute strategy. The RIC experiment faltered in the past for reasons that have not gone away: mismatched power equations, conflicting ambitions and India's unresolved boundary dispute with China. To believe that RIC can become a strategic triangle in the present climate is more diplomatic theatre than political reality.