SPRING HOPE

The outcome of the next election in Canada will hold the key to a thaw in its ties with India

- NAMRATA BIJI AHUJA

The frosty India-Canada ties await a spring. And the next spring in Canada may bring hope for India. The Canadian government is expected to table its budget in April, and there are indications that it may turn out to be the cruellest month for the minority government of Justin Trudeau. That’s because the Conservatives are unlikely to support it, and unless the Liberal Party gets support from at least one or two opposition parties, it can be forced into an election. And, the outcome of the next election will hold the key to a thaw in India-Canada ties.

At the moment, various poll ratings indicate a gap of over 20 per cent in favour of the Conservative Party; some show a 15 per cent to 24 per cent gap. The local people admit that the ruling party seems to be at an almost unrecoverable point. And this has happened over just a few weeks.

While Trudeau was not very popular before the pandemic, his popularity got a boost during Covid-19, say local residents. “Unless something very dramatic happens, it is unlikely that Trudeau will win again,” says Jonathan Berkshire Miller, director of foreign affairs, national security and defence at Macdonald-Laurier Institute, an Ottawa-based think tank. “In any case, the maximum period for the polls to take place will be less than a year. In all likelihood, it will be October. So, I think it is a matter of when, not if.”

For the next government in Canada, there will be an opportunity for a new start. It will be challenging though. The Conservatives will want to engage and partner with India on strategic and economic issues, but Trudeau’s public allegations against India have coloured the atmosphere, making it difficult for the new government to follow a pro-India foreign policy. “I suspect while we will see less antagonism, less public comments, it will still be very quiet diplomacy in the initial stages,” says Miller.