Trump's Tariffs Fail Their Own Test

HOW SHOULD WE assess whether President Donald Trump's tariffs have been effective?

- Eric Boehm

It's an important question—yet frustratingly difficult to answer. Trump has outlined overlapping, confusing, and sometimes competing goals for the tariffs.

He’s celebrated them as a source of government revenue, for example, but also claimed they are meant as a negotiating tactic. They can’t be both. Tariffs used for negotiation are meant to be removed (once negotiations are complete), rendering them useless for long-term revenue. For Trump, tariffs are a solution to every problem, and the trade war is more about the vibes than the economics.

Thankfully, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer offered some more objectively measurable goals during an April 2025 hearing with the House Ways and Means Committee. When Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) pressed Greer on what success would look like, Greer offered two clear metrics in response.

“The [trade] deficit needs to go in the right direction,” Greer said. “Manufacturing as a share of [gross domestic product] needs to go in the right direction.”

More than six months later, neither goal is any closer to being achieved. More importantly, neither seems likely to be completed over the long term by an economic policy rooted in barriers to trade.