DON'T 'PAUSE' A.I. RESEARCH

HUMAN BEINGS ARE terrible at foresight— especially apocalyptic foresight. The track record of previous doomsayers is worth recalling as we contemplate warnings from critics of artificial intelligence (A.I.) research.

- RONALD BAILEY

“The human race may well become extinct before the end of the century,” philosopher Bertrand Russell told Playboy in 1963, referring to the prospect of nuclear war. “Speaking as a mathematician, I should say the odds are about three to one against survival.”

Five years later, biologist Paul Ehrlich predicted that hundreds of millions would die from famine in the 1970s. Two years after that warning, S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, forecast that 75 percent of all living animal species would go extinct before 2000.

Petroleum geologist Colin Campbell predicted in 2002 that global oil production would peak around 2022. The consequences, he said, would include “war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens.”

These failed prophecies suggest that A.I. fears should be taken with a grain of salt. “AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity,” asserts a March 23 open letter signed by Twitter’s Elon Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, and hundreds of other tech luminaries.