What is Trump's Endgame?

The Iran war looks like a high-stakes attempt by the US and Israel to reshape the balance of power in West Asia

- Seema Guha

US President Donald Trump believes his moment has arrived. By dismantling Iran's theocratic regime, in place since the 1979 revolution that had openly called for Israel's extinction and long threatened US interests in the region, Trump believes he has sealed his legacy. No American president had dared to wage an open war with Iran. Yes, there was shadow boxing, crippling sanctions, covert strikes and cyber warfare. But never this.

This time the US crossed the line. Within hours of the US-Israeli strikes, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was dead. Iran’s most powerful symbol was gone. Trump moved quickly. He publicly called for the “unconditional surrender” of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He also said that he would decide who should rule Iran to prevent a more hardline leader from taking control.

Confidence is pouring out of the White House. Much of Iran's military and political leadership has been wiped out. Its air defence network lies in ruins. Its nuclear installations have been hit, but not destroyed. Its naval fleet was largely out of action, with one of its warships, IRIS Dena, torpedoed in the Indian Ocean, off the Sri Lankan coast. Key command structures have collapsed. On paper, Iran's military options look thin. And yet nothing about Iran is ever that simple.