Shifting Sands

Verdict 2024 is a warning bell for the BJP as the subaltern communities in UP are now rapidly shifting towards the SP and the Congress

- Rama Shanker Singh

UTTAR Pradesh’s geographical size, immense demographic wealth and political significance make it a power-packed state. With 80 Lok Sabha seats and 403 Assembly seats, each party puts in a lot of effort to have a political edge. Policy decisions made at the Centre are often discussed in the power corridors of UP.

Over the past 30 years, there has been a four-way contest—between the Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Samajwadi Party (SP), and the BJP—to conquer UP. The BSP, the SP and the BJP have been trying to strengthen their hold in the state for years, right from when Mayawati was the chief minister in 2007 and when Akhilesh Yadav was ruling the state in 2012. In 2017, Yogi Adityanath became the chief minister of the state, and the BJP benefitted from it.

While the BJP managed to create the myth of ‘invincible Modi’ in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the bubble burst in the recent 2024 elections. Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav from the INDIA bloc stopped the BJP from reaching the magical number of 272 seats on its own. PM Modi himself won the Varanasi seat by a much smaller margin this time as compared to the 2019 elections.

What changed in UP in this election?

Since 2010, I have been researching on various communities in UP as part of my study on political and social formation in North India, not just during elections, but even otherwise. Students of social studies are not always in ‘election mode’. They quietly keep an eye on changing patterns of social realities, without asking any questions. This brings experience and depth, unlike exit polls that have immediacy—direct questions like who you voted for, why, and which community you belong to are asked. Thus, these polls can never capture the societal changes that happen very gradually.

Engaging with Communities