Hipkins, your time starts now

Pollsters, pundits and bookies will be working overtime to reassess the odds for next year’s election after the implosion of Te Pāti Māori. While the current government is sliding in the polls, the left-leaning parties appear determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the back end of the game.

- Aaron Smale

Although Te Pāti Māori claims to be the only unadulterated Māori political voice, it spends more time choosing which hat it will wear than using the voice it's been given in a meaningful way.

The only solution might be for Te Pāti Māori to be cast into the wilderness, and there's a precedent for that.

For a long time, the Labour Party believed it was entitled to hold the Māori seats, while National didn't bother contesting them. This led to a lazy status quo where Māori were ignored by National while Labour patted its Māori MPs on the head every three years and then expected them to sit in the corner and keep quiet.

However, it shouldn't be forgotten there is a strong right-leaning political tradition within Māoridom. There are large pockets of Māori voters, particularly of an older generation, who still lean politically right. But like their Labour-leaning whanaunga (relatives), they have only so much tolerance for being ignored or insulted.

Winston Peters' New Zealand First became a political force only when it swept the Māori seats in 1996.

It put NZ First in the box seat in coalition talks after the first MMP election. But Peters has always played to the older, white, disaffected voter, so winning the Māori seats sat uneasily with that cohort and eventually with Māori voters themselves. It was a doomed combination.