Who Stands to Win in Poilievre's Canada

The next federal election will be the most transformative in a decade, as Canadians stare down threats from abroad and pressures from within

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The Military

Expect more recruitment, more military spending and more pro-defence rhetoric

BY PHILIP PREVILLE

PIERRE POILIEVRE HAS BEEN unsparing about what he sees as the Liberals' failures on defence. He claims that the forces are short 16,000 troops, and that procurement of ships, planes and other equipment has been slow and clumsy. He says he wants to transform Canada's military from “woke” to “warrior.”

Some of those critiques have merit—to address them, he plans to pump more money into the military. He'll uphold the Liberals' existing pledge to increase military spending to two per cent of GDP, as per Canada's NATO commitments, and he'll defund some foreign aid in order to invest in defence.

We know where much of that money will go: north. Poilievre's top military priority is to establish a stronger presence in the Arctic, which is also Canada's greatest territorial vulnerability. Our claim to the far North is contested by friend and foe alike (though it's hard to tell the difference these days). Russia has built up its presence there, while China has declared itself to be a “near Arctic” state and could be venturing into the region under the guise of research. Last year, a Canadian warship came upon a Chinese research vessel in the Bering Strait, and Canada's Department of National Defence warned that such activities could be a ruse to disguise intelligence-gathering. At the same time, the Northwest Passage, once a frozen graveyard, is increasingly navigable throughout the year. It's become strategically important as a shipping route—though its ownership is contested. Canada claims it's ours; the U.S. says it's in international waters. Its importance as a potential shipping route will grow if Donald Trump claims the Panama Canal and jacks up fees for foreign vessels there.