Housing

High mortgage turnover will cause some scrambling (but few delinquencies). Snowbirds will go the way of the dodo. And prefab, prefab, everywhere.

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1 A New Player Will Flood the Prefab Pipeline

Mattamy Homes CEO Peter Gilgan's first prefab-housing push was a bit too ahead of its time. In the late '90s, investors weren't quite picking up what he was putting down with Stelumar, a prescient startup specializing in speedy builds of single-family detached homes. In 2026, Gilgan will meet his moment. Stelumar Advanced Manufacturing Inc., a shinier version of his early modular-home factory, is slated to produce roughly 3,000 of them annually. This time, it'll focus on six-storey, city-friendly builds, shrinking per-unit assembly timelines to six months with the help of some 2020s-era tech: AI.

2 Many, Many Mortgages Will Roll Over

This year marks a time of literal renewal in Canada's mortgage sector. By the end of 2026, roughly 60 per cent of the country's mortgage holders are expected to trade their past payment rates for new ones. Team Fixed Rate is in the majority, according to the Bank of Canada. Their monthly payments may jump by between 15 and 20 per cent—a hike that could result in some households shelling out roughly $5,000 extra annually. The future is rosier for some variable-raters: their renewals could mean a five to seven per cent monthly payment drop. The Big Five banks predict some delinquencies, but they aren't in panic mode. Most mortgage holders, they say, will still be able to pass stress tests.

3 Carney's Billion-Dollar Building Fund Will Break Ground...