FIGHTBACK IN THE NORTHEAST

THE ASSEMBLY POLLS IN TRIPURA, NAGALAND AND MEGHALAYA ARE A CHANCE FOR THE BJP TO CONSOLIDATE GAINS AND TAKE THE NEXT LEAP FORWARD 

- By Kaushik Deka

THE THREE NORTHEASTERN STATES-Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland-may account for just five seats in the Lok Sabha, but the outcome of their assembly elections, scheduled in February, is politically significant for the BJP, which is in power at the Centre and in 14 states. In fact, four of its 11 CMs come from the Northeast. The stakes are high for the saffron party as it seeks to return to power in Tripura and extend its footprint in Meghalaya and Nagaland. Later this year, it will seek to retain its governments in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh and wrest power in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. A favourable outcome on March 2, when results will be declared in these three states, therefore, is important for the BJP to build momentum for the rest of the year. In contrast, the Congress, which governed the region for decades, is fighting a battle for survival. It has no presence in the assemblies of Tripura and Nagaland, while all its MLAs in Meghalaya, where it was the single largest party last time, have defected to other parties. It's the regional parties that now threaten to block the BJP's expansion plans in the Northeast.

TRIPURA

Tripura is the only northeastern state where the BJP could reach a simple majority-36 in the 60-member assembly-on its own when it overthrew the more than two-decades-long Left Front government in 2018. Several factors worked for it. There was genuine desperation among people to see a change from the CPI (M)-led government, which allegedly favoured only party cadres and loyalists. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image and popularity convinced voters to turn to the BJP as the agent of change. The alliance with the tribal party Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT) ensured that they swept 18 out of 20 constituencies reserved for tribals (the BJP cornered 10 and IPFT eight). The alliance got over 50 per cent vote share in 33 out of the 44 seats they won.