Seasonal Patterns Are Changing

Increased South American production has shifted grain market peaks.

- By Al Kluis

In 1984, I teamed up with former Successful Farming Editor in Chief Loren Kruse to write the textbook “Charting for Profit,” which had some of the first-ever seasonal price pattern studies. The concept was simple: Look back five or 10 years and study price changes, month by month. This method showed when prices usually peaked for the corn, soybean, and wheat markets, as well as when they usually put in lows.

The concept of selling during the right time period and avoiding selling in the low month (usually at harvest) worked. The corn study I worked on showed prices usually put in highs in July and bottomed in September. For soybeans, the pattern was for highs in May, and the seasonal lows in October. For wheat, the seasonal pattern was for highs in November, and the low prices during harvest in July. Over the next 20 years, these patterns worked over 80% of the time.

The First Shift

In 2008, I noticed that the seasonal price pattern was changing. The highs for corn started coming most often in May, and the lows in August or November. For soybeans, the highs came earlier, in March and April, with the lows in September.

What caused this change?