August: the New October?

Seasonal highs came in very early the last two years.

- Al Kluis

This summer, a farmer came up to me and said, “I thought you were crazy to sell new-crop corn, soybeans, and wheat ahead in January and February.” He said he hesitated, but he followed my advice. “Now, I wish I would have done more,” he said.

I admit, I haven’t advised selling ahead in January and February very often over the last 20 years. I did that in January and February of 2025 — not because of seasonal patterns, but because the markets had rallied up to price/profit targets, and most areas had excellent basis levels.

Over the last few years, I have written a few articles about how the seasonal price pattern has changed — mainly because of the large increase in South American production. The highs come in earlier, and now the lows are in August — the new October.

Another important change is the large increase in farm storage. Many elevators now offer to pick up your crops right after the combine, as they are buying a lot less corn and soybeans during harvest than they did 5-10 years ago. This helps them get grain bought at harvest, which is usually the most profitable time for elevators to buy, and usually one of the worst times for farmers to sell.

How Corn Marketing Has Changed