2026: GLOBAL FORWARDERS TO FACE SUSTAINED MARGIN PRESSURE?

Geopolitical instability is seen as a key risk, with 54% of forwarders expecting higher fuel and insurance costs in 2026

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As many as 92 per cent of freight forwarders worldwide expect their profit margins to come under further strain in 2026, as weak cargo demand, volatile surcharges and rising geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the logistics sector, according to a new analysis by OntegosCloud.

The study indicates that the industry is moving into a prolonged phase of structural stress rather than a short-term downturn, limiting the scope for margin recovery in the coming year.

STRUCTURAL HEADWINDS LIMIT PRICING POWER

OntegosCloud said container freight rates across major trade lanes are steadily normalising after years of volatility, while vessel overcapacity remains entrenched. Combined with soft global demand, these factors are significantly reducing forwarders' ability to pass on costs or protect pricing.

The analysis draws on a global survey of forwarding companies across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas, supplemented by operational data from thousands of shipments processed through the platform.

SURCHARGE VOLATILITY EMERGES AS TOP EXTERNAL RISK

Among the key threats identified, surcharge volatility ranked as the most disruptive external factor. Nearly 63 per cent of respondents cited unpredictable General Rate Increases (GRIs), carrier surcharges and frequent contract pricing changes as major challenges to margin stability.