What 2024 has in store for global cotton and wool production

While the outlook for cotton and wool in terms of global trade and production is not looking very promising in terms of growth, a large decline is also not expected.

Cotton and wool are two of the world’s most important fibres and, according to the latest reports from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and other data banks, production of both fibres are set to remain relatively the same as in the 2022/23 season, largely due to a slowing global economy, high inflation and limited consumer spending power.

COTTON

According to the latest report by USDA, global cotton mill use in marketing year 2023/24, which runs from August 2023 to July 2024, will yield a total of 112,4 million bales, a very slight increase of 1% from 2022/23.

The USDA report indicates that Pakistan, India, and Vietnam are primarily responsible for the year-on-year increase.

However, the increase is offset by a processing decline in China. In spite of this, China and India will remain the world’s leading cotton-spinning countries in 2023/24. Global production is expected to reach 113,2 million bales, which is a 3% drop compared with the corresponding period in 2022/23, due to farmers planting fewer hectares of cotton and an apparent decrease in yield.

The USDA especially mentions declines of more than 10% in key producing countries, namely China, the US and Australia.

World trade is forecast at 43,1 million bales this season, which is a 16,5% increase from 2022/23, largely as a result of Brazil’s cotton exports rising significantly. The USDA further says that imports by China account for most of the global increase.

“With world cotton production expected to exceed mill use in 2023/24, global ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are projected to increase slightly,” the report concludes.