South Africa's 2025/26 winter crop production estimate slashed once more

South Africa's 2025/26 winter crop harvest process is virtually over, having been planted in May 2025.

- Wandile Sihlobo

The focus in the country is now on the 2025/26 summer crop season, which is still in its early stages, having been planted from October 2025. Still, we continue to receive the assessment of the harvest estimate for the 2025/26 winter crop.

In recent months, the data has shown downward revisions. In its sixth production estimate, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lowered South Africa's 2025/26 winter crop once again to 2,66 million tons, down 2% from the December 2025 estimate.

The current harvest is almost aligned with the 2024/25 season's harvest. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupines.

The recent downward revision was mainly in wheat, oats, and sweet lupines, while canola and barley were roughly unchanged.

If we consider wheat, a major winter crop, the 2025/26 harvest is now estimated at 1,93 million tons, down 3% from the December 2025 estimate, and generally in line with the previous season's crop.

WESTERN CAPE DECLINES

The recent declines were mainly in the Western Cape, a major wheatproducing province, due to unfavourable weather conditions in some parts of the province. Meanwhile, other significant wheat-producing provinces, such as the Northern Cape, Free State, and Limpopo, expect larger harvests than in the 2024/25 season.